中国水利投资对农业经济增长影响的实证研究

利用1991—2009年的统计数据,通过协整分析和Granger因果关系检验,实证分析水利投资与农业经济增长之间的关系,并构建多项式分布滞后模型,研究水利投资对农业经济增长的影响。研究表明:水利投资与农业经济之间存在长期均衡关系;水利投资是农业经济增长的Granger原因,反之不成立;水利投资对于农业经济增长具有较显著的正向滞后效应,在水利投资后的第5年对农业经济增长的促进作用最大。最后,针对我国水利投资的方向和渠道提出相关的政策建议。

Empirical Research on Effect of Water Investment on Agricultural Economic Growth in China

Using the statistical data during 1991-2009,this paper empirically studies the relationship between water investment and agricultural economic growth in China through the co-integration test and the Granger casualty test.And it constructs the polynomial distributed lag model to study the influence of water investment on agricultural economic growth.The empirical results show as follows:there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between water investment and China’s agricultural economic growth;the former is the Granger cause of the latter,but the reverse is not true;water investment could promote agricultural economic growth,and this effect would reaches the largest in the fifth year.Finally,it proposes some political suggestions for water investment.