人民币实际有效汇率REER和美中贸易逆差的关系——基于1996—2005年季度数据的实证分析

文章利用中国1996- 2005年的季度数据,对中美双边贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系采用协整技术进行了实证研究,结果表明:REER与中美贸易收支之间不存在因果关系,短期内美国国内的收入水平和中国国内的收入水平与中美贸易收支之间存在因果关系,且前者对贸易收支的影响更大,所以,变更人民币汇率并不是改善美中贸易逆差的有效工具.

Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB and Bilateral Trade Deficit of Sino-US——The Empirical Analysis based on the Data of 1996-2005

This paper focuses on the issue of bilateral trade deficit of Sino-US and real effective exchange rate(REER) with the data of 1996-2005.The empirical result shows that there is no cause and effect relationship between bilateral trade deficit of Sino-US and the REER.The domestic income level of US and the domestic income level of China have the cause and effect relationship,and the prior one plays a more important role.Therefore,modifying exchange rate mechanism of RMB is not an effective method.