反通货膨胀政策的可信度检验

利用机制转换法,构建反通货膨胀政策的可信度检验模型,实证检验1978—2006年中国的宏观经济数据,结果发现,可信的反通货膨胀政策能够更有效地降低经济主体的通货膨胀预期,帮助货币当局达到抑制通货膨胀的目标,但是可信度较低的政策将增加货币当局控制通货膨胀的难度。

Test for Credibility of Counterinflation Policy

Based on regime switching approach,the paper builds up the credibility model of counter-inflation policy to examine Chinese macro economic data from 1978 to 2006.The result indicates that a credible counter-inflation policy helps to reduce the public's inflation expectation and effectively achieves counter-inflation goal,however,a lower credible policy imposes difficulties for monetary authorities to control inflation.