中美贸易失衡的三元边际——基于广度、价格与数量的分解

本文探讨了中美贸易失衡的结构特点。本文首先创建了贸易失衡的三元分解框架,将贸易失衡分解为广度、价格与数量失衡;利用1992～2008年中美HS92版本六分位贸易数据分析了中美贸易失衡的三元边际。结论发现:中国对美国数量顺差,广度与价格却是逆差;这一结论对于不同技术和行业均成立。这说明中美分工格局中,美国占据高端,中国占据低端;美国出口少量、高价、多种类商品,中国出口大量、低价、少种类商品,这是中美贸易失衡的结构特点。这一结构特点反映了中美双方发展水平的差异,短期内很难改变。

The Three Margins of Sino-US Trade Imbalance

The paper analyzes the structure of Sino-US trade imbalance.It firstly proposes a three margins′ decomposition method for trade imbalance,then,with HS92 six digits level data,it analyzes the three margins of Sino-US trade imbalance.It arrives at the following conclusions: China is surplus in quantity,but deficit in price and extensive margin,this is right for all kinds of industries and products.This means that in the specialization of two countries,US occupies the higher position and China occupies the lower position.US export products are high price,low quantity and more variety,while China export products with low price,high quantity and fewer variety.This structure reflects different development level of the two countries,and can not change in short term.