云南省边境口岸入境旅游和边境贸易互动关系研究

文章以云南省边境口岸作为研究对象,选取2000~2017年边境口岸入境旅游与进出口贸易相关数据,应用单位根检验、协整检验等方法,研究两者之间的互动关系和协调发展。研究发现:云南省边境口岸入境旅游人数和进出口贸易总额在协整检验之后显示出两者之间存在长期稳定关系;在短期内边境口岸入境旅游人数的变动与进出口贸易总额变动之间是一种单向Granger因果关系;入境旅游发展与进出口贸易两者之间的互动影响是长期的,并且边境口岸进出口贸易总额对入境旅游人数的贡献度远小于边境口岸入境旅游人数对进出口贸易总额的贡献度。鉴于此,提出了推进云南省边境口岸地区入境旅游与边境贸易协调发展的相关建议。

Study on the Interactive Relationship between the Inbound Tourism and Border Trade at the Border Ports in Yunnan Province

The article takes the data related to the inbound tourism and import and export trade of border ports from 2000 to 2017 of the border crossings of Yunnan Province and applies the unit root test and co-integration test to study the interaction and coordinated development between the two.It is showed that the number of inbound tourists and total import and export trades at the border crossings in Yunnan Province showed a long-term stable relationship.The change of the number of the inbound tourists at the border ports and the total import and export trade in the short term is a oneway Granger causal relationship.There is a long-term interaction between inbound tourism development and import and export trade.What s more,the total value of border import and export trade contributes less to the number of inbound tourists than the contribution of the number of inbound tourists to the total volume of import and export trade.At last,some relevant suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of inbound tourism and border trade in the border areas of Yunnan Province were put forward.