基于CGE模型定量探析碳关税对我国经济的影响

碳关税是发达国家在应对金融危机中为保持本国经济对其他国家设置的绿色壁垒。文章基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,在生产模块、对外贸易模块、收入支出模块、碳关税模块等模型相互嵌入式的构建,定量探析碳关税对我国对外贸易、总体经济、生态环境、不同省区经济的影响,进而得出碳关税政策对我国外贸、经济生产等方面造成较大负面影响,而在生态环境改善下影响甚微,其实质是一种保护本国经济、阻碍中国经济发展的贸易壁垒。

CGE Model-based Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Tariffs on Chinese Economy

Carbon tariff is developed in response to the financial crisis in order to maintain the green barriers set up by the national economy against other countries.Based on a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model,in the mutually embedded construction of module production,foreign trade module,the income and expenditure module and carbon tariffs module model,the article conducts quantitative analyses on the impact of carbon tariff on China's foreign trade,ecological environment,the overall economy,as well as economy in different provinces and autonomous regions.The study finds that that carbon tariff policy causes considerable negative impact on China's foreign trade,economic production,while its contribution to the ecological environment is minor.Its essence is a form of trade barriers which protect its national economy but hinder the economic development of China’.