国际油价长周期波动对产油国投资环境的影响

石油供需的弹性特点决定了国际石油市场一直存在高油价均衡与低油价均衡交替出现的现象。经济发展增速低于预期往往会带来国际油价从高位均衡向低位均衡转变,近年世界经济发展变动预示着国际油价已进入低位均衡阶段。在低油价均衡下,近年来很多重要的产油国都已出现十分严重的政府财政危机。出于维持国家财政平衡的需求,产油国往往会采取竞争性的生产政策,可能推出更具吸引力的投资政策。在石油投资机会增多的同时,投资风险会提高。在新的市场环境下,中国石油企业应当着力控制石油投资成本,在把握海外有利的投资机会的同时,高度重视和规避境外投资风险。

The long cycle of oil prices fluctuation and its impact on investment environment of oil-producing countries

The elasticity of oil supply and demand determines that the high oil price equilibrium and the low oil price equilibrium have always appears alternately in the oil market.The transition from the high oil price equilibrium to the low oil price equilibrium usually happens when actual economic growth slower than the pre-expected economic growth and the performance of world economy in recent several years means that the oil prices have already fall into the low oil price equilibrium.Under the equilibrium of low oil prices,many major oil-producing countries have had the government fiscal crisis.They tend to adopt competitive production policies and push out the attractive investment policies because of the need to maintain the country’s fiscal balance,which bring more opportunities and more risks.Facing the new market environment,Chinese petroleum companies should focus on controlling the cost of upstream activities,as well as avoiding investment risks when performing favorable overseas foreign investment activities.