全球石油市场艰难平衡 发展风险加大——2019年国内外油气行业发展概述及2020年展望

2019年,布伦特原油期货均价为64.2美元/桶,同比降幅为10.5%,世界石油市场供应和需求艰难平衡;美国对全球石油市场的掌控力和影响力继续加强;全球油气发现储量大幅增长;油气资产交易量减额增,美国页岩油气资产交易首度降温。中国原油和石油对外依存度首次双破70%,成品油出口量首破5000万吨;油气勘探开发行动计划初见成效,估计原油产量为1.91亿吨,同比约增长1.1%,天然气产量为1738亿立方米,同比约增长9.8%;炼油总能力上升至8.6亿吨/年,民企占比明显提高;油气体制改革力度空前。预计2020年国际油价将维持震荡走势,布伦特原油均价为60~65美元/桶;全球天然气供需总体宽松,天然气价格将保持低位运行;勘探开发投资预计为4756亿美元,同比增长7%;新增产能多,需求增长放缓,乙烯业的运行情况不容乐观;美国页岩油气行业资产交易或将重新活跃。中国上游勘探开发投资继续保持历史高位,原油产量有望达到1.94亿吨,天然气产量上升至1900亿立方米;天然气市场化进程将加快推进;炼油能力过剩形势将更加严峻,乙烯行业利润继续收窄。

Overview of the domestic and foreign oil and gas industry development in 2019 and outlook for 2020

In 2019,the Brent crude oil futures averaged$64.2 a barrel,down 10.5 percent from a year earlier as the world oil market struggled to balance supply and demand.The U.S.control and influence over global oil markets continue to grow.Global oil and gas discovery reserves have increased significantly,trading in US shale oil and gas assets cooled for the first time as volumes fell.For the first time,China’s dependence on foreign crude oil and oil exceeded 70%,and its refined oil exports exceeded 50 million tons.Since the oil and gas exploration and development action is beginning to show results,China’s crude oil production estimated at 191 million tons,up by 1.1%year-on-year,and natural gas production at 173.8 billion cubic meters,up by 9.8%year-on-year.The total refining capacity increased to 860 million tons per year,and the proportion of private enterprises increased significantly.Unprecedented oil and gas system reform happens.The international oil price is expected to maintain a volatile trend in 2020 with the average price of the Brent crude oil ranging from$60 to$65 per barrel.Global natural gas supply and demand will be generally loose,and natural gas prices will remain low;exploration and development investment is expected to be$475.6 bn,up 7%year on year.With more new production capacity and slower demand growth,the operation of ethylene industry will be not optimistic.The asset trading in the US shale oil and gas industry probably may be revived.Upstream exploration and development investment in China will continue to be historically high and the crude oil production is expected to reach 194 million tons,and natural gas production is expected to rise to 190 billion cubic meters.Natural gas marketization process will be accelerated;but the excess of refining capacity will be more severe,and profits of ethylene industry will continue to narrow.