2019年全球石油供应回顾与2020年展望

2019年对于石油市场而言是极不平凡的一年,全球"黑天鹅"事件频发,但"黑天鹅"事件往往来得快去得也快。总体来看,在欧佩克(OPEC)减产、美国制裁伊朗与委内瑞拉、地缘政治动荡加剧的背景下,2019年全球石油供应出现多年来的首次下降,轻重质原油资源呈现结构性的不平衡。展望2020年,全球石油供应有望恢复增长,增量除了美国之外,还有相当一部分来自巴西、挪威、圭亚那等国,供应呈现百花齐放的特点。此外,轻重质原油资源失衡的结构性矛盾仍然存在,地缘政治动荡或继续加剧。受到国际海事组织(IMO)船舶燃料新规影响,预计2020年运费市场高位震荡,从而抬升全球原油运输成本。

Review of global oil supply in 2019 and outlook for 2020

2019 is an extraordinary year for the oil market since several black swan events occurred frequently although they came and went very quickly.Generally speaking,in the circumstance of OPEC cuts,US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela,and intensified geopolitical turmoil,global oil supply has declined in 2019 for the first time and light and heavy crude oil shown structural imbalances.Looking forward to 2020,global oil supply is expected to resume its growth.In addition,to the United States,a considerable part of incremental supply will come from Brazil,Norway,Guyana and other countries.However,the structural imbalance of light and heavy resources still exists and geopolitical turbulence may continue to worsen.Affected by the new IMO low sulfur fuel regulations,the freight is expected to fluctuate at a high level in 2020,thereby raising the shipping cost for crude oil.