碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响机制研究

碳排放权交易既是实现“双碳”目标的必然选择,也是推动中国区域经济绿色增长的重要途径。本文基于“波特假说”和新发展理念,探讨碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响机制。将试点政策作为一项准自然实验,基于2005—2018年中国内地30个省份面板数据（因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区）,采用双重差分模型进行实证检验。结果表明：(1)碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长起显著促进作用,且存在正向累积动态效应,经过安慰剂检验和PSM-DID检验,发现结论依然成立。(2)碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响具有区域异质性,东部地区政策促进效应显著,而中部地区不显著,西部地区则呈现不明显的抑制效应。(3)机制研究表明,碳交易试点政策通过推动绿色技术创新、调整产业结构、优化能源结构、吸引外商直接投资以及促进共享发展以实现中国区域经济绿色增长。其中,共享发展的中介效应最大,其次为绿色技术创新和产业结构,而能源结构和外商直接投资的中介效应较小。(4)分区域机制检验发现,东部地区共享发展的中介效应最大,绿色技术创新和产业结构次之,能源结构的中介效应最小;中部地区中介效应最大为能源结构,其次为绿...

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Carbon Trading Pilot Policy on China's Regional Economic Green Growth

The carbon emissions trading is not only an inevitable choice to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, but also an important way to promote China''s regional economic green growth. Based on the theory of porter hypothesis and new development concept, the impact mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on China''s regional economic green growth was explored. The pilot policies were treated as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2018 (Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are not included due to incomplete data), the double-difference model was used to empirically examine. The results show that: (i)The carbon trading pilot policy has significantly promoted China''s regional economic green growth. There is a positive cumulative dynamic effect. After placebo test and PSM-DID test, the conclusion is still robust. (ii)Further research shows that there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on China''s regional economic green growth. The promotion effect of policies in the eastern region is significant, while that in the central region is not obvious, and the western region shows an insignificant inhibitory effect. (iii)Mechanism research shows that carbon trading pilot policies achieve China''s regional economic green growth through promoting green technology innovation, adjusting industrial structure, optimizing energy structure, absorbing foreign direct investment and promoting shared development. Among them, the intermediary effect of shared development is the largest, followed by green technology innovation and industrial structure. While the intermediary effect of energy structure and foreign direct investment are small. (iv) Sub-regional mechanism test found that the intermediary effect of shared development in the eastern region is the largest, followed by green technology innovation and industrial structure, the intermediary effect of energy structure is the smallest. The largest intermediary effect in the central region is energy structure, followed by green technology innovation, and the transmission effect of foreign direct investment is relatively small. The intermediary effect of industrial structure in the western region is the largest, while the intermediary effect of energy structure and foreign direct investment is relatively small.