中国石灰产业碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测

基于LMDI模型，以2001—2012年中国经济人口发展及石灰产业碳排放数据为样本，从5个方面对石灰产业的碳排放影响因素进行分解研究。结果表明，技术发展效应、经济增长效应以及人口规模效应是影响石灰产业碳排放量变化的主要因素，且影响趋势有所不同。基于GM(1,1)模型对中国石灰产业未来碳排放量进行预测，2030年排放量预测将达到4.48亿t。基于影响因素分析及碳排放趋势预测结果，从技术创新、政策制定等方面对中国石灰产业的低碳发展提出建议。

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emission in China's Lime Industry

Based on the LMDI model, China''s economic population development and the carbon emission data of lime industry from 2001 to 2012 are taken as samples, and the influencing factors of carbon emission of lime industry are decomposed and studied from five aspects. The results show that the technological development effect, economic growth effect and population size effect are the main factors that affect the carbon emission of lime industry, and their influencing trends are different. Based on GM(1,1) model, the future carbon emissions of China''s lime industry are predicted, and the emissions are predicted to reach 448 million tons in 2030. Based on the analysis of influencing factors and the prediction of carbon emission trend, some suggestions are put forward for the low-carbon development of China''s lime industry from the aspects of technology innovation and policy making.