危机后发达国家的非传统货币政策研究

次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。

Study on Unconventional Monetary Policies in Developed Countries after the Subprime Crisis

When the subprime crisis broke out,all the countries implemented unconventional policies to stimulate economy.Since the second half of 2009,economic situation of some countries began to recover and the emergence of inflation was worried about.Therefore,research on the exit strategies of unconventional policies is very important to stabilize the macro economy.The reason that developed countries implemented the unconventional policies is that conventional monetary policy transmission mechanism was delayed,i.e.market basic interest rate can't affect the short interest rate and long interest rate.The purpose of unconventional policies is to reduce short-term interest rate expectations and risk premium,increase inflation expectation,reduce real long interest rate,and stimulate the real economy finally.This paper investigates the financial indexes,inflation indexes and macroeconomic indexes of US.The conclusion is drawn that the transmission mechanism of conventional monetary policy has not recovered completely.European debit crisis casts a shadow over global economic recovery,so conditions are not good enough to withdraw unconventional policies completely.However,in the era of globalization,it's necessary to seek cooperation and coordination between the major powers in exit strategy.