中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。

Research on the Influential Factors of Fluctuation of Wood Forest Products Imported from Russia by China

(1)Background——The"Belt and Road"Initiative has made Sino-Russian trade partnership closer. SinoRussian trade in forest products is an important part of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.(2)Methods——In the latest data of UN Com-trade database,data samples from 1998 to 2018 are selected.The research period is divided into six phases that the first phase is from the natural forest protection project began to be piloted in 1998 to before China entered the WTO in 2001,the second phase is from after China entered the WTO to before the 2008 economic crisis,the third phase is the two years of significant economic crisis,the fourth phase is the two years of economic recovery after the economic crisis,the fifth phase is the two years from the increase of China's real estate control policy to Russia's log export quota management after entering the WTO,the sixth phase is the starts of comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia after the"Belt and Road"initiative. Constant market share model( CMS model) is used to study the import changes of Sino-Russian wood forest product trade in order to find out the main factors that cause changes in import and influence degree.(3)Results——The empirical results show that in the three stages of 1998-2000,2001-2007,2010-2011 and 2014-2018,the growth of China's import of wood forest products from Russia mainly comes from the structural effect( and mainly from the growth effect), with the contribution rate of 70. 22%, 66. 83%,133. 26% and 45. 42% respectively. On the other hand,the expansion of China's domestic market scale and the adjustment of import structure are the main reasons for the increase of import volume. That is to say,the increase of import demand brought about by China's economic development provides opportunities for China to expand the import of wood forest products to Russia. At the same time,China's import demand is also well adapted to Russia's export structure. In 2008-2009 and 2012-2013,the change of China's import of Russian wood forest products mainly came from the competitiveness effect,accounting for 56. 90% and 404. 59% respectively. In the competitive effect,the comprehensive competitive effect is the main factor. However,affected by the global financial crisis in 2008,global imports declined,which directly affected China's domestic imports. Due to the shrinking market and falling demand,the product structure effect is negative. On the side,in 2014-2018,the product structure effect was significantly improved compared with the previous period,indicating that the matching degree between China's domestic market demand and Russia's export structure of wood forest products was improved. In recent years,China's imports of sawn timber,wood-based panels and other major wood products are increasing,so the product structure effect of these three periods is also increasing. The cross effect changes from negative value to positive value,indicating that after the economic crisis,the demand for wood forest products gradually increases and the import structure is properly adjusted.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——China's imports from Russian wood forest products fluctuates keep fluctuate in stages,which are main caused by the domestic import structure and domestic market demand. At the same time,they are also affected by the world economic environment and the competitiveness of Russian wood forest products. And China's imports of Russian wood forest products are mainly concentrated in resource intensive products. In recent years,the import structure has shifted from log and pulp imports to sawn and log imports,more focused on products with rapid demand growth. Therefore,China should further optimize the structure,scale and level of import trade of wood forest products to Russia and promote the sustainable development of import trade of wood forest products between China and Russia. And the import structure of wood forest products to Russia should be adjusted and the moderate growth of imports should be promoted. What's more,it's urgent to increase infrastructure construction,unblock logistics channels,and expand imports. And trade policies for wood forest products and break through tariff barriers need to be improved. The last one is to pay attention to the diversification strategy of import market and avoid excessive dependence on Russia.