中国木材进口的可替代性和进口来源安全性分析

基于2008—2017年中国与常年贸易伙伴国的数据样本,运用面板数据估计方法分别测算了国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间的Armington替代弹性,并分三阶段分组检验,还测算了中国原木、锯材主要进口来源国的出口产出弹性。结果显示:国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间具有较低的可替代性,且可替代性均呈下降趋势;内外材差异化程度较大,对国外进口木材具有长期的进口依赖性;原木进口市场供给风险较大,新西兰、澳大利亚供给安全性强,美国、巴布亚新几内亚、俄罗斯进口风险大;锯材进口市场的供给较稳定,泰国、巴西和马来西亚等国供给潜力大。因此,中国应大力发展培育国内优质大径材和珍贵树材,建设培育基地,提高优质木材供给能力;寻找珍贵木材的替代材料,通过技术开发生产替代产品;加强境外森林资源的开发利用,调整木材进口来源,减少对高风险国家的进口依赖。

Analysis of Substitutability of China's Timber Imports and Safety of Import Sources

(1)Background——Under the background of the shortage of domestic timber supply in China and the restrictions on timber export in the international market,it is of great significance to study the substitutability and the security of import sources of Chinese timber(log,sawn timber) import to ensure the security of timber import trade.(2) Methods——Based on the panel data of China and perennial trading partner countries in 2008-2017,the Armington substitution elasticity between domestic and imported logs,domestic and imported sawn timber in stages,and the export output elasticity of log and sawn timber are measured.(3) Results——(1)The regression results of the three stages show that the Armington substitution elasticity of logs and sawn timber in China both have a declining trend with fluctuation,indicating that the substitutability of logs and sawn timber are gradually weakening,and import dependence is increasing. In 2014-2017,the import substitution elasticity of Chinese logs is 1. 2074,and the import substitution elasticity of sawn timber is 0. 9288.The demand for domestic timber was insensitive to changes in the price of imported timber. Moreover,the replaceability of sawn timber is lower than that of logs. The difference of timber between at home and abroad is large,which makes strong dependence on imported timber and difficulties on import substitution in the short term.(2) From the perspective of global supply,both production and export volume of logs are in a state of volatility. Its export output elasticity has been less than 1 since 2015,which means the log supply market overall has low supply security,while sawn timber's export output elasticity is always greater than 1 all year round with growth trend. Therefore,the supply of sawn timber in the international market is generally safer than that of logs.(3)The export output elasticity of the United States,Russia,Papua New Guinea,and France is less than 1,which account for a large share in the Chinese logs import market. Therefore,the risk of importing logs from these countries is high. And the export output elasticity of New Zealand,Australia,Uruguay,Japan,Germany is greater than 1,and the log supply of these countries is relatively safer. The supply of sawn timber import market is relatively stable. Except United States and Canada,the export output elasticity of other large-scale importing countries is greater than 1,the export output elasticity of most small-scale importing countries is greater than 1,which can expand the trade scale of Thailand,Finland,Germany,Malaysia,Brazil,Ukraine and other countries.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——The large differences between domestic and imported timber make them less replaceable. Therefore,China's timber supply will reply on foreign markets for a long time. On the other hand,the export restrictions on logs lead to lower import security,and import structure is not safe. Therefore,during the process of reducing the dependence on imported timbers,it is necessary to adjust the import structure to ensure the sustainability of China's timber supply. Firstly,it should be oriented to the cultivation of high-quality large-diameter timber and precious tree species,and cultivation should also be built base to improve the supply capacity of high-quality timber. Secondly,it is possible to produce imported timber substitute materials through scientific and technological means such as modified timber and integrated timber. In addition,bamboo and straw can also be selected as alternative timber resources. Thirdly,China should strengthen the exploitation of overseas forest resources to improve the stability of timber supply by building overseas forest resource cultivation bases and timber processing factories. Finally,adjusting the structure of timber imports is necessary to reduce dependence on high-risk countries.