中国国情下的保险费率监管模式选择及影响分析--来自车险市场的经验证据

我国保险监管朝着“放开前端、管住后端”的模式发展，保险费率市场化改革的呼声始终较高。文章以财险市场中市场份额最大的车险为研究对象，基于2001－2014年样本分析了费率市场化与费率水平合理性之间的关系。研究发现，我国车险市场的实际费率水平明显低于理论费率；费率监管的严格程度的确会影响费率水平的合理性，其中适度监管模式下的费率水平最为合理。文章进一步深入探究了费率水平合理性对偿付能力的影响机制，发现费率差异的波动性会通过净利润而间接影响偿付能力。费率差异的波动性越小，净利润越高，偿付能力越强，因此应慎重选择费率监管制度。文章建议我国保险市场应采用适度监管的费率制度，完全放开的费率市场化略显激进，不适合当前国情。这样不仅能使费率水平更加合理，还不会威胁保险公司的偿付能力，从而使保险市场更加健康稳步的发展。

The Choice of Premium Regulation Modes and Their Effects in China:Evidence f rom Auto Insurance Market

Insurance supervision in China develops into a mode of opening up the front end and controlling the back end ,and the voice of the marketization reform of premiums is always high .From a perspective of auto insurance occupying the largest market share in property insurance market ,this paper analyzes the relationship between the marketization of premiums and the rationality of premium rates based on a sample from 2001 to 2004 .It arrives at the conclusions as follows :the real premium rates are much lower than the theo‐retical premium rates in the automobile insurance market ;the strict degree of premium rates regulation actually can influence the rationality of premium rates ,and premium rates in the moderate regulation mode are the most rational .It further studies the effect of the rationality of premium rates on solvency and show s that the volatility of differences in pre‐mium rates indirectly affects solvency through net profits .Smaller volatility of differences in premium rates results in higher-level net profits and stronger solvency ability ,so super‐vision system of premium rates should be selected carefully .It suggests that insurance market in China should adopt moderate supervision system of premium rates and com‐pletely opening-up marketization of premium rates seems to be a little radical ,not suitable for current situation .T herefore , it could make premium rates more rational , and also would not affect the solvency of insurance companies ,thereby leading to more healthy and stable development of insurance market .