东亚生产性服务业和制造业的产业关联分析

本文以1990年、1995年和2000年亚洲投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析法,对东亚各经济体生产性服务业和制造业进行产业关联分析。研究结果表明,经济发展水平越高的经济体其生产性服务业发展水平越高;随着经济水平的提高,制造业服务投入比重相应提高;两产业之间融合度的变动方向是:制造业需求主导→对称性均衡→生产性服务业供给主导;经济水平越高的经济体其生产性服务业对制造业发展的推动作用越强,发展水平越低的经济体其生产性服务业的发展就越依赖于制造业。中国在各项指标的比较中,基本上都位于东亚地区最后一位,尤其是中国制造业表现出服务投入比重下降这一与演进规律相悖的现象。

Industry Relevancy between Producer Services and Manufacturing in East Asia

This paper analyzes the industry relevancy between producer services and manufacturing in East Asia,based on the Asian input-output table collected from 1990 to 2000.The following conclusions are drawn.The higher the development level of an economy,the higher the development level of the country′s producer services;With the development of an economy,there is an uptrend of the intermediate input structure of producer services in manufacturing.The direction of the change of the integration between the two industries is: manufacturing demand-led→symmetric equilibrium→producer services supply-led;The higher the level of economic development,the stronger the driving effect of the producer services on the manufacturing,and the lower the level of economic development,the more do the producer services depend on the manufacturing.In comparison with other economies in Eest Asia by the indicators,China is the last one among them.