宏观经济政策反思及其转型的框架设计

前几年实行的财政政策中,企业税费负担增长过快抑制投资需求与增发国债扩大投资需求相互抵消;发行国债的增速在下降,还本付息比例在上升,国债发行扩大投资的边际效用在递减;国债主要投资于短期增加就业和拉动增长的基础项目上,其增长和就业连续性较弱.而货币政策方面,降低利率和存款准备金率以及公开市场业务操作等总量性的政策,对扩大贷款,特别是对推动增长和增加就业最有用的中小企业的放款,几乎没有作用.贷存比和对中小企业的贷款持续下降和相对减少.因此,需要从行政取向国债为主的财政政策和总量性的货币政策,转向市场取向刺激社会投资的财政政策和体制及结构性的货币政策.减少税费负担,实行投资税收抵扣制,对积极为中小企业贷款的银行给予税收优惠;大力发展社会资本的中小银行,同时鼓励民间中小企业信贷担保公司的发展,放宽资产抵押、担保和信用贷款的一些政策,调整银行呆坏账准备金的使用结构,为中小企业贷款服务.如果财政政策和货币政策转型,则在未来的三四年中,失业率可以从目前的年10%-11%下降到5%-6%,国内消费增长率从目前的8.5%左右提高到年12%-13%,消费物价走出持续低迷,并且GDP每年以8%的速度再增长三到四年.

Macroeconomic Policy in Retrospection and the Design of Transition Framework

The macroeconomic policy adopted in the recent years was characterized by administrative orientation with government debts as the core in one hand and the aggregate monetary policy in the other. The marginal effect of such a policy in promoting investment is becoming weaker while its impact in promoting economic growth and increasing loans to small enterprises, which are most helpful to increase employment, can merely be seen. Therefore, macroeconomic policy should be transformed to a fiscal policy that can encourage social investment and an institutional and structural monetary policy. It is estimated, with the help of such macroeconomic policy, the unemployment policy would decrease to 5%-6% in 3-4 years ahead, while the domestic consumption rate would increase to 12%-13%, the consumption and price could move out of the low, and the GDP would increase at an average annual rate of 8%.