“稳增长”与“去杠杆”目标下的双支柱政策协调——基于供求冲击和金融摩擦视角

构建带有金融摩擦的DSGE模型，研究在供给面和需求面冲击下，各种不同类型的双支柱政策组合对稳增长与去杠杆的调控效果及传导机制。结果表明：当遇到技术冲击时，单独使用货币政策改变信贷供给状况可以较好地维护宏观经济的稳定，这也是金融危机之前未重视宏观审慎政策而只是强调货币政策控制经济周期波动的原因所在。面对正向房地产需求冲击，不适用于单纯采取大幅加息等总量措施，而应配合采取收紧LTV等宏观审慎政策，更有针对性地对房地产市场适度降温，避免对整体经济造成冲击，利率政策与LTV政策使经济增长和杠杆率的波动相对较小，政策组合更有效。

Coordination of Two Pillar Policies under Stablizing Growth and Deleveraging Goals: A Perspective of Supply and Demand Shocks and Financial Frictions

The DSGE model with financial frictions is constructed to study the regulation effect and transmission mechanism of various types of dual-pillar policy combinations on stabilizing growth and deleveraging under the impact of supply and demand. The results show that, when facing technical shocks, the use of monetary policy alone to change the credit supply can better maintain macroeconomic stability, which is also the reason why, before the financial crisis, China did not attach importance to macro-prudential policy, but only emphasized monetary policy to control economic cycle fluctuations. Facing the positive impact of the real estate demand, it is not suitable to adopt aggregate measures such as large interest rate increase, but should cooperate with macro-prudential policies such as tightening LTV to moderately cool down the real estate market and avoid impact on the overall economy. Interest rate policy and LTV policy make economic growth and leverage rate fluctuate relatively smaller, policy mix is more effective.