城镇化背景下我国耕地的中长期预测

本文分析了中国耕地资源变化的现状;利用人口—耕地模型对中国耕地的中长期变化进行了预测;利用模型对各项建设用地的扩张和占用耕地情况进行了预测;对耕地的各项变更进行了预测。主要结论有耕地减少速度近中期较快,长期转缓;建设用地的扩张和占用耕地的数量取决于总人口的发展和城镇化的进程;建设占地将成为未来耕地减少的主要项目。提出应建立和实施严格的土地普查和管理制度,提高城市土地的利用效率和城郊农业的土地生产效率,提高耕地的质量水平,加强可持续发展规划以实现对土地资源的合理利用。

Forecasting Arable Land in Mid and Long Run under the Background of Urbanization in China

The paper analyzed current situation of arable land resource change in China,forecasted the change of arable land in China at mid and long run by applying population-arable land model,and forecasted constructional land expansions and related arable land loss through modeling.It also forecasted the changes of detailed arable land conversion categories.Major conclusions are: arable land decline in China is faster in short and mid run,slower in the long run,quantity of constructional land expansion and arable land loss is determined by the growth of total population and the progress of urbanization,arable land loss caused by constructional land expansion will be the major arable land loss item.The author advocates to compose and strictly apply arable land census and management regulations,to enhance urban land use efficiency and suburban agricultural land productivity,to raise the arable land quality level,to fortify sustainable development plan,so as to realize reasonable utilization of land resources.