数量规则还是利率规则？——我国转型时期量价混合型货币规则的理论基础

本文对我国货币政策转型时期兼顾数量和价格的货币政策调控实践进行了深入的分析。在货币数量论和货币效用模型的基础上,从理论上阐明了货币数量规则与利率价格规则的等价关系,并构建了符合中国货币政策实践的数量与价格混合型货币政策规则。这对于更好地理解我国货币政策转型时期的量价混合型货币政策操作具有重要的理论和现实意义。相关推论表明,正是由于数量和价格混合型货币规则,在利率低于均衡水平的情形下,中国的货币增速并未引发恶性通胀;修正的物价稳定泰勒原理表明,利率调整幅度小于通胀变化仍能够实现物价稳定。对中国的经验分析支持了理论和推论结果。在利率市场化基本完成和流动性格局逆转的当下,货币政策价格调控方式转型的必要性和迫切性日益上升,转型的条件日趋成熟。

Quantity Rule or Price Rule: Theoretical Foundation of the Admixed Monetary Rule in China's Transition Period

In recent years, the Chinese economy has been shifting from rapid growth to high-quality development. In this situation, monetary policy should adopt aggregated and structural regulations to keep liquidity at an adequate level and to help the real economy. With the rapid development of Chinese financial innovation and financial disintermediation, the effects of quantity regulation (which controls the money supply as the intermediate goal) are decreasing. In particular, Chinese interest rate marketization has entered a new stage, where the core feature is a mechanism for the formation and control of market-oriented interest rates. Monetary policy should now be transformed from quantity-based regulation to price-based regulation.The regulation of quantity and price are interactive processes. It is necessary to maintain the balance between quantity and price. In the transformation of China's monetary policy, the combination of quantity and price regulation has played a vital role in stabilizing economic growth and inflation. A lot of studies have shown that purely quantity-regulating rules such as the McCallum rule, or purely interest rate-regulating rules such as the Taylor rule cannot fully explain China's monetary policy. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between monetary rules regarding both quantity and price, and to explore a quantity-price admixed monetary policy. Such an admixed rule policy can help us to comprehensively understand Chinese monetary policy regulation during transformation.In this study, we construct our model based on the Fisher equation and the money-in-the-utility model. We analyze the relationship between the monetary quantity rule and the price rule, and construct a quantity-price admixed monetary policy rule. It is of great theoretical and practical importance for interpreting the regulation of China's monetary policy. On one hand, the admixed monetary policy rule verifies the equivalence of the quantity rule and the price rule. When output deviates from potential output, or inflation deviates from the inflation target, we can regulate these imbalances through either interest rate instruments or currency instruments. Quantitative instruments and interest rate instruments complement each other. At the same time, when the currency deviates from the target level, we can also regulate the problem through interest rate instruments. When the interest rate deviates from the natural rate, we can use currency instruments. However, in terms of practice, the quantity and price of money are equivalent as two sides of a coin, so that the money supply and the market interest rate both have important roles in monetary regulation. The admixed monetary policy rule is important for analyzing the typical issues that arise during the transformation of China's monetary policy regulations.We make some inferences based on our admixed monetary policy. First, we find that under equilibrium conditions, the directions of quantity regulation and of interest rate regulation are opposite. If the interest rate is lower than the natural interest rate's level, then the actual growth rate of the money supply will be greater than the optimal growth rate. This inference explains the fact that although our interest rate is controlled at low levels, and our money supply exceeds the potential level, the Chinese economy has not experienced severe inflation. Second, we construct a modified Taylor principle that is suitable for China's monetary policy. With the admixed quantity-price rule, when the money supply's rate of growth exceeds the potential level, the adjustment of interest rates can be less than the change of the inflation rate, and the prices can also be stable. This inference explains why the standard Taylor principle is not established in China. Therefore, with a distorted interest rate, we can also achieve price stability. Third, we analyze the liquidity effect in China. We find that with the admixed rule, if the growth rate of the money supply is smaller than the optimal level, the interest rate's fluctuation will be larger than that indicated by the principle Taylor rule. However, when the money supply's rate of growth is higher than the optimal level, the interest rate will be stable. This inference explains the fluctuations of interest rate with the changes to the liquidity conditions, and especially the growing fluctuations of interest rates seen since 2011. The study's empirical analysis verifies the assumptions of our model and our inferences.It is urgent to transform our monetary policy from a quantity-based to a price-based system of regulation. In the future, the central bank should further improve open market operation and develop innovative liquidity management tools, so as to effectively regulate the interest rates, thereby creating a favorable financial environment for high-quality development of the Chinese economy.