基于IRF与VD的黑龙江国有林区林业经济带动效果研究

随着天保工程和国有林区商业性禁伐的全面展开,黑龙江国有林区林业经济的发展急需转型。由于不同林业产业对其他林业产业的带动作用不尽相同,可以从动态内生增长的角度运用脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解(VD)来分析主要林业产业对林业经济增长的带动效果。研究结果表明:现阶段黑龙江国有林区主要林业产业对其他林业产业带动作用的大小顺序依次为木材加工及竹藤棕苇制品制造、木材采运、经济林产品的种植与采集、森林旅游与休闲服务、林木的培养和种植,随着林业经济的转型升级,森林旅游与休闲服务和经济林产品的种植与采集的带动作用将逐步增强,并且形成多元化林业主导产业格局。基于研究,提出优化林业产业结构,加速林业经济转型;促进林产品深加工,打造全国知名品牌;依托森林资源优势,发展森林生态旅游等建议。

The Research of Forestry Economic Drive Effects in Heilongjiang State-Owned Forest Zone Based on IRF and VD

As the Natural Forest Protection Project and commercial forest cutting prohibition in full swing,the development of forestry economy in Heilongjiang province state-owned forest zone must transform. Because different subordinate forestry industries play different roles in leading other forestry industries,we can use impulse response function( IRF) and variance decomposition( VD) from the perspective of dynamic endogenous growth to analyze the major subordinate forestry industries that drive the effects of forestry economic growth. The research indicates: nowadays,the driving efforts order of main forestry subordinate industries to other forestry industries in Heilongjiang Province state-owned forest zone is wood processing and bamboo,cane,palm,reed products manufacturing,timber harvesting,cultivation and collection of economic forest products,forestry tourism and leisure services,trees cultivation and planting. With the forestry economic transformation and upgrading,the leading role of forest tourism and leisure services and cultivation and collection of economic forest products will be gradually increased,and a diversified leading forestry industries pattern will be gradually formed.Based on the research,several suggestions was put forward to optimize forestry industrial structure,accelerate forestry economic transformation,promote deeply processed forest products,create famous brands,rely on forest resource advantages,develop forest ecotourism.