实物期权理论对矿权价值评估方法的改进

传统的矿权价值评估方法DCF法在短期、低风险、较低不确定性情形下有其独到之处的。但面对矿业投资领域投资额大、周期长、技术工艺复杂、风险高等特点,DCF经常低估矿业投资项目的真实价值。而实物期权法则可以解决风险大、不确定性大的矿业项目的经济评价和投资决策。它作为矿权价值评估的新方法,改变了过去人们对不确定性因素的看法,不再将不确定性因素作为消极的因素来看待,而是研究如何利用不确定性因素来获得更大的收益。实物期权法在矿权价值评估中的实际应用则是对传统的矿权价值评估方法的改进。

Improvement of Mining Right Evaluation Method by Real Option Theory

Traditional mining right evaluation method---DCF is widely used in projects with short period, low-level-risk, low-uncertain factors. But mining industry has characteristics such as large-scale investment, long period to recover, complicated technology and high-level risks. Method of DCF often underestimates the real values of mining investment project. It is better to use real options method in the investment and economic evaluation of mining projects with high-level risks and high- uncertain factors. As a new method of mining right evaluation, it changes people's traditional opinions to uncertain factors and make people no longer take the uncertain factors of a project as a negative factors. Instead of, the people pay more attention to research how to take the advantages of uncertain factors and get more profits. Real options method is introduced in practices of mining right evaluation, in fact it improves the traditional mining right evaluation method.