互联网使用能否提升农户信贷获得水平*——基于CFPS面板数据的经验研究

基于2014—2018年中国家庭追踪调查三期面板数据，运用联合估计的条件混合处理（CMP）模型和工具变量模型，本文分析了互联网使用对农户信贷获得水平的影响效应，并采用修正样本自选择偏差的双稳健IPWRA模型进行了稳健性检验。研究发现：互联网使用对农户信贷获得水平具有显著正向影响，既可以提升农户信贷的可得性，也可以提高农户的信贷规模。就不同贷款渠道而言，互联网使用同时显著提高了农户正规和非正规信贷获得水平。异质性分析表明，互联网使用对于处于中年、兼业程度大以及中西部地区的农户信贷获得水平促进作用更大；机制分析表明，互联网使用主要通过信息搜寻、社会互动以及收入增长三种效应来提升农户信贷获得水平。因此，贯彻落实“互联网+”政策，提升农村地区的互联网覆盖率，是缓解农户融资难和决胜脱贫攻坚战役的重要政策手段。

CAN INTERNET USAGE IMPROVE THE LEVEL OF CREDIT FOR FARMERS——Empirical Research Based on CFPS Panel Data

Based on the panel data of three phases of China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018,this paper uses the Conditional Recursive Mixed Process(CMP) model and instrumental variable model of joint estimation to analyze the effect of Internet usage on the credit level of rural households,and uses the double robust IPWRA model with modified sample self selection bias to performs robustness test.The study finds that Internet usage has a significant positive impact on the level of credit for farmers,which can improve both the availability of credit and the scale of credit for farmers.For different loan channels,Internet usage has significantly improved both formal and informal credit access levels of farmers.The heterogeneity analysis shows that Internet usage plays a greater role in promoting the credit access level of farmers who are middle aged,with part time jobs and in central and western regions.The mechanism analysis shows that Internet usage mainly improves the level of credit obtained by farmers through three effects including information search,social interaction and income growth.Therefore,implementing the “Internet Plus” policy and increasing the Internet coverage rate in rural areas are important policy measures to alleviate the chronic financing problems of rural households and win the battle against poverty.