基于DEA模型的我国海洋运输业安全评价及预警机制研究

文章运用DEA模型评估了我国海洋运输业2001—2007年的产业安全度。模型输出结果表明:2001、2002、2004、2006年为DEA无效,但是θ值逐年增大,说明我国海洋运输业安全度水平逐步提高;从总体来看,我国海洋运输业处于安全水平。我国海洋运输业经济活动的重点在于怎样提高我国海洋运输业占主要海洋产业总产值的比重以及增加对万吨级以上港口的投资。基于所建立的海洋运输业安全指标体系,建立我国海洋运输业安全的预警机制。

The Safety Assessment and Alarm Mechanism Research of China’s Marine Transportation Industry Based on the DEA Model

This article applies the DEA model to evaluate the safety level of marine transportation industry from the year 2001 to 2007 in China.The results show that DEA is ineffective in the year 2001,2002,2004 and 2006,but with the growth of the θ value,the safety level of marine transportation industry is improving.Generally Chinese marine transportation industry is at safety level.Hence the prior activity is to increase the proportion of marine transportation production in the total output value and increase investment in harbors which are at or at higher levels of ten thousands tons.Finally based on the established of marine transportation industry safety indicators system,we establish early warning mechanism for the safety of China’s marine transportation industry.