关于中国人民银行独立性的研究--来自独立性指数和政策反应函数的证据

本文的目的在于 :(1 )根据GMT和CWN的方法 ,将中国人民银行有关法律指数化 ,并通过独立性指数的纵向和跨国家比较来分析中国人民银行在法律层面上的独立性变化和独立性程度 ;(2 )构建中国人民银行政策反应函数 (policyreactionfunction) ,并通过政策工具变量 (instrumentvariables)和政治事件虚拟变量 (dummyvariables)的变化来反映中国人民银行的实际独立性。

A Study On the Independence of People's Bank of China: Evidence from Independence indices and Policy Reaction Function

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods System, avoiding inflation and fluctuation of economic growth has become one of fields in macroeconomic and institutional research in many developed countries and developing countries. Both theory research and empirical study demonstrate that the independence of the central bank and the macroeconomic stability are closely intertwined. So, since 1970s institutional reforms on the independence of the central bank have been widely carried out in many countries. Also a series of institutional reforms have been implemented in People's Bank of China (PBC) from1980s to 1990s. However, until now there has not been any systematic research inquiring into the independence of People's Bank of China yet. The purpose of this article is: Firstly, according to the GMT's approach and the CWN's approach to measure the legal indices of PBC independence, then use the vertical and transnational comparisons of independence indices to analyze the changes and the level of the independence of PBC. Secondly, to construct the policy reaction function of PBC, and use it to analyze the real independence of PBC according to the changes of policy instrument variables and political dummy variables in the policy reaction function.