进出口贸易与大连地区经济增长实证研究

本文选取1990～2006年度大连市统计数据,建立计量经济模型,在模型中加入进口、消费、投资等解释变量,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验对大连市进出口贸易和经济增长关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明大连市的经济增长与进口、出口、消费、投资之间存在着一种长期稳定的关系,进口、出口和投资明显促进了经济增长,而消费对经济增长的影响则并不显著。进、出口贸易与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。并在此基础上提出大连市经济发展的政策建议。

Import and export trade and Dalian district economy growth demonstration research

This paper conducts an empirical analysis and test on the relationahip between foreign trade and economic growth in Dalian city, by useing 1990-2006 annual statistics data.In the model, import, export , consumption, investment and other explained variables are added, and cointegration test and Granger causality test is adopted.The result of which shows that：there exists in Dalian city a long and stable relationship between economic growth and import,export,consumption and investment;import ＆ export and investmerit promote economic growth obviously while consumption not so much. There is one-way causal relationship between import and export trade and economic growth . Finally economic growth policy suggestions to Dalian are put forward according to the result.