国际收支视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨

我国国际收支持续双顺差和外汇储备大幅增长导致了人民币升值压力的形成。目前我国已实行以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制,且已实现了人民币经常项目下的可兑换,因而外汇市场供求和国际收支状况对人民币汇率的影响逐步加大。本文基于外汇供求模型构建了我国国际收支影响人民币汇率形成的模型并进行了实证分析,结果显示出口、外资流入和外汇储备变动对汇率的影响比较显著。最后基于上述分析对如何完善人民币汇率形成机制提出了政策建议。

Probing into RMB exchange rate forming mechanism reform under the angle of international balance of payments

Our country has implemented taking the market supply and demand with the management as the foundation the floating exchange rate system,also has realized convertibility under the Renminbi current account,the Renminbi exchange rate also more and more has been influenced by the foreign exchange market supply and demand and our country＇s condition of balance of payments.This article constructs a model of BOP influencing forming of Renminbi exchange rate and examine the model.The result indicates that the influence of export,inflow of foreign capital and variance of foreign exchange reserve on exchange rate is evident.