基本公共服务与经济发展互动耦合机制及时空特征——以江苏省13城市为例

实现基本公共服务均等化并缩小区域经济差距,是新时期区域协调发展面临的主要问题。以江苏省13城市为案例,利用耦合协调模型,实证揭示江苏省基本公共服务、经济发展以及两者耦合协调度的总体特征和时空特征。研究发现:基本公共服务的改善可以通过经济要素条件的传递机制推动经济发展,而经济发展又反过来推动基本公共服务的改善,两者之间存在相互促进又相互制约的耦合协调关系。这种关系在不同经济发展水平阶段表现出不同特征。而在短期内则呈现"升—降—升—降"的小振幅波浪式变化,基本公共服务建设的速度决定拐点出现的周期长短。江苏省基本公共服务与经济发展的耦合协调关系总体表现为相对协调,但也呈现出苏南苏中苏北地带性差异,2011—2013年全省除扬州市之外的其他12市耦合协调性都在不同程度上升,到2014年除扬州和镇江两市外,其他11城市耦合协调性都出现了拐点。最后,提出促进基本公共服务和经济耦合协调发展的路径对策。

Coupling Mechanism and Spatiotemporal Evolution Between the Basic Public Services and the Economic Development: The Case of 13 Cities in Jiangsu Province

Achieving the equalization of basic public service and narrowing the regional economic gap are the main problems of regional harmonious development in the new period. Based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between the basic public service and economic development, this paper, taking 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, empirically revealed the general and temporal-spatial characteristics of the coupling coordination degree by using the coupled coordination model. The study finds that the improvement of basic public services can promote the economic development through the transmission mechanism of economic elements, and economic development gives a reverse push to improve the basic public services. There is a coupled and coordination relationship between them that promotes and restricts each other. This relationship presents different stage characteristics by the different level of economic development and shows a small-amplitude wave-like variation of "up-down-up-down" in the short terms. The speed of basic public service construction determines the cycle length of the inflection point. The coupled and coordination relationship between basic public services and economic development in Jiangsu Province is generally coordinated, but it also shows the regional differences between Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu. In 2011-2013, the coupled coordination degree of 12 cities except Yangzhou rised in different degrees. Apart from the cities of Yangzhou and Zhenjiang, the coupled coordination of other 11 cities have shown an inflection point by 2014. Finally, this paper proposes the path strategy to promote the coupled coordinated development between basic public services and economic.