我国住房成本的空间演化与劳动力流动决策影响

城市化是经济增长的一个重要引擎。人口向城市的流动仍面临不少现实约束,其中住房条件是一个重要方面。基于2014年流动人口动态监测微观数据、人口普查数据和城市统计资料,文章首先探讨住房成本的空间演化过程,随后实证研究城市住房成本(以房价—收入比,房租—收入比衡量)对劳动力流动行为的影响。空间关联分析指数(Getis-Ord G^*i)显示,城市住房成本的空间自相关性较强,冷热点区域的转换与外来人口的空间分布变化密切相关。进一步使用条件Logit估计发现:平均而言,住房成本上升显著降低劳动力流入城市的意愿,尤其是对低学历劳动力、年轻劳动力和女性劳动力而言,住房成本上升对流入意愿的抑制作用更明显。就政策启示而言,文章的分析表明降低公租房和廉租房等城市保障性住房准入门槛,提高其覆盖率,将有助于推动人口向城市的集聚。

Spatial Evolution of Housing Cost and Its Effect on Labor Migration in China

Urbanization is an important engine of economic growth. Urban housing condition, among others, is an important factor that may restrict the population migration from rural to urban areas. Using the Monitoring Survey Data of National Floating Population, Census data and other statistical data, this paper analyzes the spatial evolution of housing cost which is measured by the ratio of housing price to income and housing rent to income and empirically investigates its effect on the labor migration. According to spatial correlation index(Getis-Ord G^*i), housing cost shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, transformation between cold and hot areas of housing cost is closely related with spatial distribution of floating population. Then, Conditional Logit estimation results show that the increase of urban housing cost significantly leads to a decrease in the probability of migrant inflow, Which has larger inhibition effect for migrants who are poorly educated, younger and female laborers. This article proposes that loosening admittance for migrants on public rental housing and low-rent housing and increasing in urban public housing coverage may help the population agglomeration.