Institution: | The authors are members of the Department of Economics, University of Pretoria. This paper is based on an unpublished doctoral thesis in the Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, by Estelle Jonkergouw under supervision of De Wet with computer assistance, apart from her overall contribution, by Renee Koekemoer. The authors would also like to thank Mr M. Verwoerd for performing the cointegration tests. We are indebted to several experts of the Department of Economics at the South African Reserve Bank, especially Dr J.P. van den Heever, Mr B. van Zyl, Mr L. Venter and Ms S. de Clerck, who provided sound and clear advice on many empirical and institusional matters. We are also greatly indebted to (in alphabetical order) Prof S.G. Hall of the London Business School, Prof L.R. Klein of the University of Pennsylvania, Prof. G.E. Mizon of Southampton University and Prof P. Pauly of the University of Toronto for their comments and many helpful suggestions. The authors alone remain responsible for any deficiencies |