中国区域经济趋同与差异的因素贡献分析

本文利用趋同核算分析框架和时变参数模型考察了各种因素对1978-2004年间我国区域经济趋同与差异的贡献.分析表明,引发我国区域经济差异增大的主要因素按其重要性的先后次序可排列为劳动力市场表现、物质资本投资、人力资本投资、中央财政支出;资本边际收益递减和技术扩散引发的趋同效应是促使我国区域经济差异缩小的主要因素;地方财政支出对我国区域经济趋同与差异基本上没有影响.这一结论有助于中央政府找准区域经济协调发展战略的着力点并科学制定出有效的政策措施.

The Factors Contribution to Regional Economic Convergence and Disparity in China

This paper investigates the factors' contribution to regional economic convergence and disparity over the period 1978-2004 in China by applying convergence accounting analysis and time-varying parameter model.The main conclusions are as follows:The influential factors causing regional economic disparity in descending order are labor market performance,investment in physical capital,investment in human capital and central govern- ment fiscal expenditures according to their importance,while convergence effect driven by diminishing returns and technological diffusion playing significant role in reducing regional economic disparity and local government fiscal expenditures being roughly neutral on the whole.The above conclusions are helpful for central govern- ment to find implement points of regional economic co-ordinate development strategy and set up effective policy actions.