| 中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨茂. 中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2006, 13(1): 21-23 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨茂 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学,天津,300072;河南工业大学,河南,郑州,450052 |
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| 摘 要： | 美英等国的消费者信心指数(CCI)可预测消费者的行为,也可为宏观经济提供信号传导功能。应用格兰杰因果检验与回归分析,笔者对我国 CCI 与京、津、沪、穗四大城市的社会消费品零售总额之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：我国 CCI 与北京、天津的消费需求存在显著的预测和单向信号引导关系,与上海、广州的消费需求不存在显著因果关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 消费者信心指数 社会消费品零售总额 宏观经济 格兰杰因果检验 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-1096（2006）01-0021-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-08 |
An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese Consumer Confidence and Consumption Demand Effect |
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| Yang Mao. An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese Consumer Confidence and Consumption Demand Effect[J]. Economic Survey, 2006, 13(1): 21-23 |
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| Authors: | Yang Mao |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China ; 2. Henan University of Technology , Zhengzhou 450052, China |
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| Abstract: | The consumer confidence index(CCI)has great influence on the Macro-economy in many countries.It is powerful not only in predicting behaviors of consumers,but also in signaling economic situations for related sectors.Using Granger-Causality model and regressive model,the dynamic relationship is tested between consumer confidence index and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the four Chinese leading cities of Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Guangzhou.The results show that Chinese CCI can powerfully predict consumers'demand and has a single-direction signaling function in Beijing and Tianjin,but not in Shanghai and Guangzhou. |
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| Keywords: | consumer confidence index total retail sales of consumer goods macro-economy Granger causality |
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