中美两国的贸易逆差、外交反应与双边贸易平衡

中美两国贸易逆差是中美经济和政治外交博弈互动的结果,并由中美两国经济内生力量和政治外交力量共同决定。实证模型表明:(1)中美两国贸易逆差扩大是两国外交重要的驱动力量;(2)中美两国总外交具有缩小贸易逆差、平衡两国贸易的效应,而中美两国双边访问、双边协商和外交声明的贸易平衡效应具有边际不对称性和时滞性;(3)中美两国贸易逆差历史积累具有逆差扩张效应;(4)中美两国贸易逆差的变动由逆差自身扩张效应和外交平衡效应共同决定,但起主要作用的是经济内生逆差积累扩张效应;(5)中美两国可以积极发展外交和调整外交组合模式,调节两国贸易逆差,但不能从根本上解决两国贸易不平衡问题。

The Sino-US Trade Deficit, Diplomacy Responses and Bilateral Trade Balance

The Sino-US trade deficit, resulting from Sino-US economic game and bilateral diplomacy interaction, was determined by the endogenous power of the Sino-US economy and politic power. Our regression model shows that: (1)The Sino-US trade deficit is the important cause driving the development of diplomatic relationship; (2) The whole diplomatic relationship was benefit to the trade balance, but the Sino-US leader's visits, talks, and negotiations, important declarations imposed asymmetric and time-lagged effects on bilateral trade balance;(3)The cumulative trade deficit will expand the Sino-US trade imbalance;(4)The change of Sino-US trade imbalance that determined by the self expansion, and the diplomatic balance effect, are mainly determined by economic endogenous power;(5)The Sino-US diplomatic development and structure adjustment will play important role in solving the trade problem, but can not root out of the problem.