山东城镇居民收入与消费的协整分析

运用协整理论,对山东城镇居民的人均可支配收入与人均消费性支出进行了实证分析。得出的结论是:1980~2003年,城镇居民的消费与收入具有协整关系,城镇居民的消费函数具有稳定性,居民的消费主要取决于居民的收入。从长期看,要刺激山东城镇消费市场,必须依靠增加城镇居民的人均可支配收入。对于刺激消费的降低利率、增加消费信贷等短期性政策,虽然短期内可能扩大消费,但不可能影响消费和收入的长期均衡关系,上一期扩大的消费将在下一期的消费中进行修正。

The Co-integration Analysis Based on the Income and Consumption of Urban Residents in Shandong

Using co-integration theory,the per capita annual disposable income of Shandong urban residents and per capita living expenditures for consumption has carried on demonstration analysis.The conclusion that is reached: from year 1980 to 2003,the income and the expenditures of urban residents have co-integration relation,the consumption function of urban residents has the stability,the consumption of residents depends on the income of residents mainly.Since in the long run,to stimulate Shandong urban consumption market,must rely on increasing the per capita annual disposable income of urban residents.For stimulating the expense to reduce interest rate and the policies of short period such as consumption credit,although in the short run,it possibly expands consumption,but is impossible to affect the expense disbursement and long-term balanced relations of the income,the expense that expanded last issue will carry on the revision in the next issue of expense.