河北省工业碳排放情景预测与节能减排潜力分析

通过计算河北省工业能源终端消费的碳排放量,对2015年和2020年工业CO2排放的三种目标情景进行了预测。在此基础上,根据河北省有关规划设定的目标,分析了河北省六大高耗能行业的节能减排潜力,指出这些行业分别处于不同的节能减排难度空间。最后,根据各高耗能行业的节能减排难度,设计了单边突破、渐进式提升、跨越式发展和自我提升等节能减排路径。

Forecast on the Industrial Carbon Emissionsand Analysis on the Energy Saving Potential in Hebei Province

By calculating the carbon emissions amount by the terminals of the industrial consumption in Hebei Province, the paper forecasted thethree-goal scenarios of the industrial carbon dioxide emissions in 2015 and 2010. On this basis, in accordance with the relevant development planin Hebei Province, the paper analyzed the energy-saving and emission-reduction potentials among the six high energy-consuming industries inHebei. It also pointed out that these industries are in different energy-saving and emission-reducing difficulty dimensions. Finally, according to thedifferent difficult levels of these industries in energy-saving and emission-reducing, the paper designed some different paths, including unilateralbreakthrough, gradual upgrade, leaping development and self-improvement.