中国货币需求均衡水平调节的实证研究

通过构建以收入、股票市场市值、利率、预期通货膨胀率以及汇率为自变量的货币需求计量模型,本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数,以我国1994年第一季度至2009年第二季度的季度数据为样本,对我国货币需求的均衡水平调节状态进行了实证研究。研究表明,以上变量与实际货币需求存在长期稳定的均衡关系,货币需求在短期内存在向长期均衡水平调整的自发调节机制,各自变量对货币需求的影响程度各异且具有不同的动态过程。最后,根据实证结果提出了一些政策建议。

Empirical Study on Regulation of Equilibrium Level of Money Demand in China

Through constructing the econometric model on money demand which takes the income,stock market value,interest rate,expected inflation rate and exchange rate as independent variables,and using co-integration test,error correction model and impulse response function and the quarterly data about first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2009,this paper empirically studies the state of the equilibrium level regulation.The results show that:there exist long-term stable equilibrium relationships between thes...