The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market |
| |
| Authors: | Mark J Peter F |
| |
| Institution: | a Faculty of Actuarial Science and Statistics, Cass Business School, London, UK;b Department of Accounting and Finance, The Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK |
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for arbitrage across firms. We also examine extreme odds biases. A detailed re-examination of match result odds and a new examination of correct score odds for the period 1993 to 1996 suggest that the market is inefficient. |
| |
| Keywords: | Statistical forecast Score odd Firm |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
