俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。

The Influence of Russian National Economic Security on Sino-Russia Economic and Trade Cooperation

Since the 20th century,Russia has experienced the impact of external factors such as the Ukrainian crisis,western economic sanctions and the fall of international oil prices,and its economic security has been seriously threatened.In this context,Russia′s political and economic strategy is bound to affect the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia,and then affect the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the econometric model,this paper analyzes the influence process and related factors of Russian national economic security on Sino-Russia economic and trade cooperation from the aspects of trade cooperation and foreign direct investment cooperation.The research shows that Russia′s national economic security crisis has promoted China′s position in Russia′s trade partner countries,and promoted Russia′s strong willingness to cooperate with China in production capacity,as well as direct investment and production capacity cooperation have gradually become a strong driving force for the in-depth development of Sino-Russia economic and trade cooperation;Russia′s national economic security crisis has a significant negative impact on Sino-Russia trade,and China-Russia political relations have a significant positive impact on trade cooperation.This is an opportunity period to increase China′s investment in Russia and increase the proportion of high-tech products imported into Russia.It is also an important opportunity period to promote the Silk Road Economic Belt.Russia,with its strong economic rise and the overall collapse of its economic system,has an important impact on the promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt.In the process of its strategic partnership of cooperation,it is crucial for China to properly balance the interests of major countries.