地方政府债务对工业资本配置效率的非线性影响效应——基于动态面板平滑转换回归PSTR模型的检验

经济新常态下,提高工业资本等要素配置效率是实现经济向高质量增长转变的必然要求。本文在政府主导、投资驱动的工业发展模式下,结合地方债务压力和金融发展差异门限变量,在非线性框架下运用动态面板平滑转换回归模型实证检验地方债务规模与工业资本配置效率的渐进演变关系。研究发现,适度的地方债务规模有助于提高资本配置效率,但随着债务压力增加,举债对资本配置的正效应逐步减弱并产生负效应。究其原因,适度举债能补齐工业基础设施短板,压低土地成本,对工业发展产生杠杆效应,从而提高资本配置效率;但过度举债推升财政风险,占用信贷资源并强化企业融资约束,造成资本配置低效率。此外,研究发现,地方信贷规模提升,能缓解举债的融资约束,促进工业行业间的资本流动;而工业金融深化程度提高,能增强市场竞争机制在要素配置中的作用,缓解举债造成投资错配,从而增强资本配置效率。以上分析结果表明,地方政府举债应更理性、适度、规范。

The Nonlinear Effect of Local Government Debt on the Efficiency of Industrial Capital Allocation:A Test of Regression PSTR Model based on Dynamic Panel Smooth Transformation

Under the new normal of economy,it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the allocation of industrial capital and other factors to realize the transformation of economy to high-quality growth.Under the government led and investment driven industrial development mode,combined with the threshold variables of local debt pressure and financial development difference,the paper uses the dynamic panel smooth transformation regression model to test the gradual evolution relationship between local debt scale and industrial capital allocation efficiency in a non-linear framework.It is found that the appropriate scale of local debt can improve the efficiency of capital allocation,but with the increase of debt pressure,the positive effect of debt on capital allocation gradually weakens and produces negative effect.The reason is that moderate debt can make up for the short board of industrial infrastructure,reduce the cost of land,produce leverage effect on industrial development,and thus improve the efficiency of capital allocation;however,excessive debt can promote financial risk,occupy credit resources and strengthen corporate financing constraints,resulting in low efficiency of capital allocation.In addition,the study found that the scale of local credit can ease the financing constraints of borrowing and promote the capital flow among industrial industries;and the deepening degree of industrial finance can enhance the role of market competition mechanism in factor allocation,alleviate the investment mismatch caused by borrowing,so as to enhance the efficiency of capital allocation.The above analysis results show that local governments should be more rational,moderate and standardized in borrowing.