“一带一路”背景下制度距离对我国向中东和北非出口贸易影响研究

中东和北非国家是我国"一带一路"倡议的重要合作伙伴,该地区各国经济发展水平和制度环境迥异,在经济制度和政治制度方面与我国存在较大差异。基于全球治理指数和经济自由度指数相关数据,分别计算出我国与中东和北非地区24国的政治制度距离和经济制度距离,并采用2007~2016年我国对该地区的出口贸易数据,借助引力模型实证分析双边制度距离对我国出口贸易的影响及出口潜力情况。结果发现,我国与中东和北非国家政治制度距离和经济制度距离均存在临界值;只有当制度距离超过临界值时才会对我国的出口贸易产生负向影响。通过贸易潜力测算发现,我国对中东和北非部分国家出口贸易潜力巨大。最后,就如何减少双边制度差异提出建议。

The Impact of Institutional Distance on China’s Export Trade to MENA under the Belt and Road

The Middle East and North Africa countries are important partners of the Belt and Road Initiative.The economic development level and institutional environment of the countries in the region are very different,and there are great differences in economic system and political system between MENA and China.This paper calculates the political institutional distance and economic institutional distance between China and the MENA’s 24 countries based on the data related to the Global Governance Index and the Economic Freedom Index,and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of bilateral institutional distance on China’s export trade and its export trade potential to the region through Gravity Model by using the data of China’s export trade to the region from 2007 to 2016.The results show that there is a threshold to make the bilateral institutional distance have a negative effect on China’s export trade to the region.In addition,we know that China still has great potential for export trade to some countries in the region through the measurement of trade potential.More discussions and some suggestions on how to reduce bilateral institutional differences are put toward at the end.