老龄化、服务性消费与第三产业发展--来自中国省级面板数据的证据

本文基于2003－2013年的中国省级面板数据，通过引入老龄化与服务性消费比重的交互项，综合运用多种静态和动态面板数据模型和稳健性分析，考察老龄化通过服务性消费渠道对第三产业发展的影响。研究结果表明，老龄化对第三产业发展具有负向影响，但老龄化引致的服务性消费比重的提高能显著减弱这一负向影响。进一步扩展讨论的结果证实，服务性消费确为老龄化影响第三产业发展的重要渠道，提高民生性财政支出、保障公共服务均等化及提升金融发展水平有利于释放老年人口的服务性消费需求，拉动第三产业发展。

Aging,Service Consumption and the Development of Tertiary Industry---Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

Under the background of aging , the elderly service consumption is of great significance for expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of tertiary industry .By introducing an interaction term of aging and service consump-tion per GDP, this paper, based on the Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2013, utilizes various static and dynamic panel data models and robustness analysis to examine the impact of aging on the development of tertiary industry through the specific channel of service consumption .The results show that aging has a negative impact on the development of tertiary in-dustry, but the demand of service consumption caused by aging will reduce the negative impact significantly .Further analysis shows that the service consumption is an important channel in which aging influences the tertiary industry ;accelerating urbani-zation, improving pension and other social security system , and enhancing the level of financial development are conducive to release the demand of elderly service consumption , thus contributing to the development of tertiary industry .