财政限制下政府债务与通货膨胀研究

随着人口老龄化,许多发达经济体都步入了财政压力时代,政府对养老金的承诺大大高于财政收入,政府为了实现承诺将利用发行新债务进行融资,这将带来未来的高税收预期.随着债务水平和税率水平的上升,人们对税收的容忍度将下降,从而触碰财政限制的可能性增大.在采取固定税率情况下,调整税收不再能稳定债务,必须采取政策转变来应对.在财政限制之前债务增长与政策调节如何相互作用,若采用货币政策的被动调节来满足稳定债务,那么政府债务将影响到通货膨胀,从而使货币政策失去对通货膨胀的控制,进而需要通过财政政策来解决通胀问题.

Government Debt and Inflation Under Financial Constraints

With the aging of the population, many developed economies have entered an era of financial pressure. The government promised pension is much higher than the revenue, the government promised to use in order to achieve the issuance of new debt financing, which will bring high taxes expectation. With the rise in the debt level and the level of tax rate, people''s tolerance will decline, the possibility of touching fiscal constraints increases. In the case of the fixed tax rate, the tax adjustment will no longer be able to stabilize the debt, it must be taken as a policy to accommodate the situation. We study the interaction with debt growth and policy adjustment in the period before the financial constraints. If the passive monetary policy is adopted to stabilize the debt, government debt will affect inflation, so that monetary policy lose the control of inflation, and then the fiscal policy is needed to solve the problem of inflation.