Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Recursive Preferences in Continuous Time |
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Authors: | Hisashi Nakamura Keita Nakayama Akihiko Takahashi |
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Institution: | 1. Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan
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Abstract: | This paper proposes a testable continuous-time term-structure model with recursive utility to investigate structural relationships between the real economy and the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. In a representative-agent model with recursive utility and mean-reverting expectations on real output growth and inflation, this paper shows that, if (1) real short-term interest rates are high during economic booms and (2) the agent is comparatively risk-averse (less risk-averse) relative to time-separable utility, then a real yield curve slopes down (slopes up, respectively). Additionally, for the comparatively risk-averse agent, if (3) expected inflation is negatively correlated with the real output and its expected growth, then a nominal yield curve can slope up, regardless of the slope of the real yield curve. |
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