金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率：来自中国省域的证据

文章将金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率整合在一个统一的分析框架中,考察了开放经济下金融发展在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,并进而促进全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。并基于这一结论,用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,证明了金融发展通过对外贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显。同时在实证检验中还发现,金融发展通过对外贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即存在“人力资本门槛”效应。

Financial Development, Foreign Trade and TFP: Evidence from Provinces of China

This paper study the effect of financial development promoting TFP through international trade channel. In observing trade scale and trade structure, this paper introduces financial proxy and explores the mechanism of financial development, trade scale, trade structure and TFP growth. Empirical results show that financial development can promote trade scale and trade structure evidently. But different finance index has different effect. For example, medium - long-term credit can promote trade scale and trade structure remarkably, the same effect approved in some financial efficiency indexes. But credit scale does not have this effect. Then, the paper use estimated trade values as our empirical index. There have improved the productivity effect of financial development on TFP through international trade channel, but it also find that this effect only lies in eastern region, other regions do not have this effect for low financial development level. The empirical conclusion also showed that productivity effect of financial development only occurred through technical progress, instead of technical efficiency. In addition, human capital has important effect on empirical examination conclusions, that is, there exists "human capital threshold".