货币国际化影响因素与作用机制的实证分析

本文在利用国际货币的三大职能全面衡量货币国际化程度的基础上，采用GMM识别货币国际化的影响因素，进而借助自举法的面板Granger因果检验探究货币国际化与其显著影响因素间的相互作用机制。研究发现，货币国际地位的提升在某个阶段可能以某一职能发挥为主，不同阶段的政策着力点应该不同；货币国际化与其影响因素间存在双向因果关系，主导性国际货币对发行国经济因素的影响更为明显；长期来看，人民币国际化成果可以为我国经济增长和金融发展服务。

An Empirical Analysis on Influential Factors and Mechanism of Currency Internationalization

Basing on an overall measuring the degree of currency internationalization in accordance with three functions of international currency, we estimate determinants of currency internationalization by adopting GMM method. After that Bootstrap Granger Causality Test is used to explore the mechanisms of interaction between currency internationalization and its determinants. We find that the upgrade of currency internationalization relies heavily on the exertion of a certain function in a specific phase and the policies in each phase should be different. Currency internationalization has great causality relation with its determinants. Domestic economic factors can be more dramatically influenced by leading currencies. In the long term the internationalization of Renminbi will make a significant contribution to domestic financial market and economic growth.