现代经济周期理论的历史审视

对于经济周期波动现象的形成机理,不同经济周期理论从差异化视角进行了解读。本文沿着经济周期理论的发展脉络．回顾了20世纪30年代大萧条以来经济周期理论的演进历程,对五种主要的现代经济周期理论的产生背景和主体思想进行了考察。研究发现：不存在严格意义上的“通论”,经济周期理论只在特定历史背景下才有解释力,其生命力的保持有赖于理论的不断创新与发展;虽然在经济波动的形成机理上,不同经济周期理论观点不一．但是西方现代经济周期理论逐渐从对立走向融合;20世纪90年代以来出现的新兴的新古典经济学为市场经济条件下的宏观经济政策调控体系提供了理论依据。

The Historical Review of Modern Business Cycle Theory

For the formation mechanism of economic cycle phenomena, different economic cycle theory interprets from differentiated perspective. Follow the economic cycle theory development skeleton, we recall the evolution of business cycle theory since the great depression of the 1930s, and observe the background and main ideas of five main modern economic cycle theory. We find that： Firstly, there is no strictly＂ General Theory＂, business cycle theory only in the specific historical context have explanatory power, and maintain its vitality depends on continuous innovation and development; Secondly, although differ- ent economic cycles have different theoretical perspectives in the form mechanism of economic fluctuations, but modern western economic theories gradual shift from confrontation toward integration; Thirdly, the emerging neo-classical economics which emerging since 1990s, provides theoretical basis for macroeconomic policy control system under the conditions of market economy.