美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。

Study on U.S. Economic Fluctuations' Impact on China's Economic Growth and on the Transmission Mechanism

In an open economy,fluctuations in a country's economy can transfer to other countries through international trade,international investment and other cross-border flows of capital. Since the United States has become China's major trading partners and FDI source countries,the fluctuations of its economy have great influence on China's economy. Thus,with the method of variance decomposition and generalized impulse response function which is based on the VAR model,using bilateral trade and investment as a transmission link,taking the impact of exchange rate changes into consideration,this paper quantitatively analyzes the long-term transmission mechanism and short-term dynamic features of U.S. economy fluctuations' impact on China's economy. Impulse response analysis showed that the U.S. economy has a greater impact on China's economy,and the way that United States economy fluctuations affect China's economic growth is influencing the channel of China's exports to the U.S.. Variance decomposition results showed that China's economy contributes more to the U.S. economy.