双边FTA谈判的策略选择模型与实证分析

在"实施自由贸易区战略"的指导下,我国的自贸区建设工作已经取得了长足发展。在建立FTA的过程中,如何作出对我国经济长期可持续发展最有利的决策是FTA谈判的核心问题。为了解决这一问题,本文通过建立双层博弈模型以及逆向选择模型,并应用GTAP模型合成了双边FTA谈判策略选择理论和可计算模型。通过对中韩FTA所涉及的12个行业货物贸易产品的实证研究,本文证明了所建立模型的有效性,即可以通过双层博弈模型与逆向选择模型的联合应用,从正向和逆向两个角度确定不同行业的最优谈判策略。

Strategy Selection Model of Bilateral FTA Negotiation and Empirical Analysis

With the guide of "FTA strategy",China has already gained great achievements in FTA construction.During the process of FTA construction,the key task is to make a decision to benefit China′s sustainable development.To cope with this task,this paper synthesizes "Strategy Selection Model of Bilateral FTA Negotiation" by establishment of computable two-level game model,computable reverse selection model and application of GTAP model.Through the empirical analysis of trade in goods of 12 industries in China-Korea FTA,this paper proves the effectiveness of the "Strategy Selection Model of Bilateral FTA Negotiation",which means,by forward and reverse selections,this synthesized model can choose the optimal negotiation strategies for different industries in FTA negotiation.