“合成谬误”与中国商品贸易条件恶化

外贸发展的"合成谬误"会导致所有实施同一发展战略的国家贸易条件恶化,降低外贸增长的福利,这一观点成为质疑立足比较优势实现出口导向发展战略的重要论据。基于UNCTAD 1995年以来的商品贸易数据分析发现:由于其他与中国出口商品结构相似的新兴经济体的崛起,中国贸易条件恶化态势得以凸显,即中国贸易条件恶化在"合成谬误"的前提下更加明显。那么这就需要调整中国外贸发展战略以避免"合成谬误"。

Fallacy of Composition and China's Commodity Terms of Trade Deterioration

Fallacy of Composition would worsen terms of trade, reducing the welfare of foreign trade growth. This point of view has been an important argument against the export-oriented development strategy based on the comparative advantage. Based on the merchandise trade data since 1995, this paper shows that China′s terms of trade deterioration has been highlighted as a result of the rising-up of other emerging economies. This means that the development of China′s foreign trade called for strategic adjustment in order to avoid fallacy of composition.