中国式“荷兰病”与外来直接投资研究

本文从来源于加入WTO后外向型劳动密集型产业繁荣的中国式"荷兰病"理论出发,深入细致地分析了中国式荷兰病通过"支出效应"、"资源转移效应"、"人民币汇率效应"、"体制惰性效应"以及"技术创新效应"等对中国外来直接投资的诸多影响。文章实证研究发现,持续、大规模涌入我国的外来直接投资不仅投资产业和流入方式发生了巨大变化,而且在推动我国对外贸易和贸易顺差迅速扩大的同时,进一步强化了中国式荷兰病和我国出口导向型经济增长方式。文章最后建议制定国家中长期产业发展规划及相关产业政策,及时赋予外商投资企业以国民待遇,适时扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,切实鼓励国内企业对外直接投资,从而确保我国经济增长方式转变与经济增长质量提高。

China's " Dutch "Disease" and Foreign Direct Investment

Based on the theoretical framework of China′s Dutch Disease,this paper does comprehensive empirical studies of its impact on China′s foreign direct investment during 2001～2007 through channels of spending effect,resource movement effect,RMB exchange rate effect,institutional inertia effect and technological innovation effect.As a matter of fact,large inflows of foreign direct investment reinforced China′s Dutch Disease and China′s export-led growth strategy,even though they boosted China′s foreign trade and China′s trade surplus in the years after China′s accession to WTO.Finally,to improve the quality of China′s economic development and to change China′s long-standing growth strategy,this paper recommends formulating medium and long-term blueprint of China's industrial development,endowing foreign invested firms with national treatment,increasing the daily floating band of RMB exchange rates,and encouraging Chinese firms to undertake more ambitious overseas investment projects.